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Guide · Economy

How to Make Money

Margins in Probably Stolen come from steering the right customers to your counter, then knowing when to haggle and when to sell. This guide explains the display case and the events that move prices.

Checked vs v1.0.0.2Updated 9 sources
On this page · 5 sections
  1. The display case is your marketing
  2. Haggling and reputation
  3. Sell into market events
  4. Money while the shop is closed
  5. The grey zone

The short answer: Stock the display case around one tag you want to sell, keep store attractiveness at 100 or more, and sell into market events. Water and appraisal are low-capital starters CommunityCommunity. Haggle hard only where the reputation cost is worth it Official.

The display case is your marketing

The display case does two jobs: it attracts buyers for what’s inside, and signs placed in it turn random walk-ins into specific sellers. Everything in this section comes from Display case and You by The Exceptional Fisherman. The guide is community-measured, written during the demo and updated on launch day Community.

Buyers: tags and tiers

  • Buyers from the display case are always the first customers of the day.
  • You get 1 display buyer at base. A buyer referral, the first case upgrade and the second case upgrade add 1 each, for a maximum of 4.
  • If store attractiveness drops below 100, the case generates no buyers at all.
  • The buyer type follows the item’s tag, and the tier follows the combined value of everything with that tag in the case:
Combined tag value Buyer tier
1–144 Tier 1
145–349 Tier 2
350+ (Household: 300+) Tier 3. Tier 3 buyers don’t appear before day 14

If you have more tags than buyer slots, the tag with the highest combined value wins. Water has its own label-based tiers: gutterflow up to basewater draws tier 1, high-quality draws tier 2 and pure draws tier 3. Whichever scale reaches the higher tier applies.

Example tier-3 buyers include the upper-level servant (Household), upper-level private chef (Food) and upper-level hedonist (Substance). They are the highest-budget clients Community.

Sellers: signs, permits and boards

Signs don’t add customers. They replace random customers, and only up to the number of random customers you’re expected to get that day:

  • +1 random customer at 200 store attractiveness, +2 at 250, and more at higher attractiveness.
  • +1 with at least 20 Lower Levels reputation. −1 below that.
  • −1 if you went out the previous night. 4 random customers max.

Signs roll in priority order. The order shows in-game in the clientele panel. Example odds from the guide:

Item in display Spawns Chance
Water / Food / Material / Medical / Household neon sign Matching seller 75%
Firearm neon sign Lower-level or mercenary gun seller 40%
Heavy firearm neon sign Upper-level gun seller 25%
Class 1 / 2 / 3 weapon permit Custom gun buyer 50% / 40% / 35%, rising each time it fails
Appraisal board Appraisal customer 33–55% by tier, rising each time it fails
Scavenger’s token Scavengers 20% each, stacks to 100%
Black lamps Thieves 10–30% each + 1% per 2 Black Market rep (max 95%)

Haggling and reputation

  • Bargaining changes customer budgets Official.
  • Buy-side and sell-side bargains affect reputation separately. The bargain panel shows a reputation multiplier for each direction Official.
  • 诺布诺布 measured reputation losses at 2× Normal on the hardest difficulty. The guide suggests skipping hard bargaining on small deals and protecting long-term buyer and supplier relationships Community.
  • The bulk-buying Merchant is an outlet for stock you can’t move. He takes a 25% cut on the hardest difficulty and less on easier ones Community. Since 1.0.0.1 he states his real discount for your difficulty, where before he always claimed 15% Official.

Sell into market events

Station events shift prices for a few days. These are measured values from Events and You Community:

Event Price effect Duration
Water treatment breakdown Water +100%, water rations +100%, beverages +90% 3 days
Scheduled treatment maintenance Water +35% 3 days
Station-wide blackout Energy cells +100%, weapons +25%. Your power goes off unless you bought the power hijack 2 days
Power shortage Energy cells +66%. Power goes off without the hijack 2 days
Medical supplies shortage Medical +50% 2 days
Bad Nutrifruit harvest Food +50% 3 days
Construction project Materials +30% 3 days
Ice-asteroid miners return Water −25%. The ice miner never mislabels water 2 days

Keep a buffer of the goods that spike (water, energy cells, medical) so you have stock to sell when an event hits.

Money while the shop is closed

  • Vending machines, new in 1.0, keep selling overnight after you close Official.
  • Production machines work overnight. See machines & automation.
  • Scratch tickets. Winning tickets can be cashed in immediately Official. Hitting the jackpot unlocks Jackpot, which 6.2% of players had a day after launch Steam data.

The grey zone

The store page lists the tempting options: cut quality, relabel counterfeits as genuine, or fence stolen goods “if you believe Security won’t reach you” Official. Each has a cost:

  • Relabelling gets noticed eventually. One player reports getting called out after selling about 100 L of mislabelled water Community.
  • Contraband risks raids and confiscation. Read security, smuggling & augs.
  • Winning without ever selling stolen goods or contraband unlocks Clean Hands, which only 0.7% of players had a day after launch Steam data.

Quick questions

How does the display case work in Probably Stolen?

Items in the display case attract buyers matching their tags. The combined value of a tag sets the buyer tier, with 145 or more for tier 2 and 350 or more for tier 3. Signs, permits and boards in the case can turn a random customer into a specific seller. Buyers arrive first each day. If store attractiveness falls below 100, the case stops generating buyers.

Why am I not getting the sellers I put signs out for?

Signs don't add customers. They replace your limited random customers in priority order. If you display more signs than you have expected random customers, lower-priority signs only get a chance when higher ones fail their roll.

Does haggling hurt reputation in Probably Stolen?

Yes. Bargaining changes customer budgets and affects reputation in the direction of the trade. Community testing on the hardest difficulty reports reputation losses twice as large as on Normal.

What do vending machines do in Probably Stolen?

Vending machines, added in 1.0, keep selling goods overnight after you close the shop. They bring in profit while you sleep.

SOURCES & VERSION

Checked against game version 1.0.0.2. Official = developer announcement or store page; Steam data = Valve's public stats; Community = player-measured, credited to its author. Community numbers can drift after patches.

  1. official Steam store page — Questing Goose Studio / tinyBuild, 2026-10-29
  2. official Probably Stolen is OUT NOW! — Official Steam announcement, 2026-10-28
  3. official UPDATE 049 Patch note – Release Date + New Demo — Official Steam announcement, 2026-09-14
  4. official Hotfix – 1.0.0.1 — Official Steam announcement, 2026-10-28
  5. Steam data Global achievement stats — Steam Community, 2026-10-29
  6. community Display case and You — Steam guide by The Exceptional Fisherman, 2026-10-28
  7. community Events and You — Steam guide by The Exceptional Fisherman, 2026-10-28
  8. community 开荒顺序与投资取舍 (Opening order & investment trade-offs) — Steam guide by 诺布诺布, 2026-10-28
  9. community Water Trading Made Easy — Steam guide by Owlie, 2026-10-28

Spotted something outdated after a patch? Official changelogs live on the Steam news hub, and we track them on the patch notes page.

Official store

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