On this page · 3 sections
Best first pick: The Apprentice start. The developer calls it a generalist start that is “best for beginners” Official. The developer also calls Aquafarmer slower-paced and more beginner-friendly than rat ranching Official. For a challenge, Rock Bottom starts you with nothing Official.
All nine scenarios at a glance
In 1.0 you choose a starting scenario first, then one of 4 difficulty options Official. The pitches below quote or closely paraphrase the developer’s 1.0 overview OfficialOfficial. “Heat” is our rough read of how much legal trouble the line invites, based on the store page’s own warning that “weapons bring inspections, chemicals bring addiction, water brings liability, contraband brings raids” Official.
| Scenario | Developer’s pitch | You start with (confirmed) | Heat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apprentice | Generalist; upgrade as you go; best for beginners | 550 credits, first rent 200 (hardest difficulty, community-measured) Community | Low |
| Water Merchant | Test, purify, re-label. Or not. Liability is yours | Water testing strips, a 6 L jug and a Hydratech micro purifier Community. The purifier handles up to 7.5 L Community | Medium |
| Aquafarmer | Breed fish; water quality, food and environment shape what you get | Tilapia stock and recirculating aquaculture systems Official | Low |
| Hydroponic Farmer | Grow crops in limited space; end with genetically modified breeds | Hydroponic machines and farming supplies Official | Medium |
| Chemist | Profitable chemicals, closely guarded recipes, customers who come back | Chemistry lab equipment Official | High |
| Gunsmith | Weapons & mods. High margins, security inspections | Class 1 weapon permit, firearms and ammunition Official. The 3D printer now ships with its instruction note (1.0.0.2) Official | High |
| Fence | Stolen goods. Move fast, stay invisible | — | Very high |
| Rat Wrangler | Can you grow a healthy 2×3 rat? | — | Medium |
| Rock Bottom | Nothing. Start from scratch. Maximum difficulty | Nothing | Brutal |
Scenario notes
Apprentice
Learn every system at your own pace Official. 诺布诺布’s opening guide budgets the first week around 550 starting credits and a 200-credit first rent on the hardest difficulty. It suggests building capital through trading and scavenging, then choosing a production line based on your materials, power and buyers Community. That week-one timeline is on the beginner guide.
Water Merchant
The developer describes a station where pure water is “more expensive than gold” Official. Community guides call water the most foolproof money-maker with the least micromanagement Community. Balance is moving here, though: the 1.0.0.2 hotfix reworked the Water Purifier and cut the Moisture Farm and Water Filter prices Official. The full process is in the water purification guide.
Aquafarmer
From the official update that added it Official:
- You begin with a basic water circulation system, tilapia and fish food.
- You progress from tilapia varieties to more valuable eels and sturgeons. Each species has its own habitat needs: water quality, filtration and an energy cell to keep the tanks circulating.
- Healthy fish lay and fertilize roe, which hatches into fry and grows into adult fish. Tanks can be upgraded with the right materials.
- Slaughter and butcher fish with a knife. Use Surgery Tools on sturgeons to harvest caviar.
Hydroponic Farmer
You grow crops in small spaces and finish with modified breeds “people pay a fortune for. Including things they probably shouldn’t buy.” Official Growing a Huge Nutrifruit unlocks Green Thumb. It’s one of the rarest achievements, held by 0.1% of players a day after launch Steam data.
Chemist
Recipes are “closely guarded” and customers come back Official. Producing a Lab Pure grade narcotic unlocks Say My Name (0.2%) Steam data.
Gunsmith
High margins come with security inspections Official. Weapon permits also act as display-case signs that bring custom gun buyers. See the display case section.
Fence
Fencing discounted stolen goods works “if you believe Security won’t reach you”. The store page also warns about mob justice Official. Read security, smuggling & augs before your first run.
Rat Wrangler, the hidden start
The Rat Wrangler was hidden on the profession selection screen during the playtest. The developer hinted “look closely at the starting professions selection screen” Official, then made it visible in patch 48.3.12 Official. Starting with it still unlocks We Have Rats!, which 3.5% of players had a day after launch Steam data.
Rock Bottom
You start with nothing Official. The developer suggests combining it with the hardest difficulty for extra challenge Official. Two achievements reward it: From Nothing (0.2%) and From Nothing, the Hard Way (0.1%) Steam data.
Starts coming after launch
Free updates are planned to add these starts OfficialOfficial:
- Junker, “coming shortly after launch”
- Organ Trader, “for the Butcher fans”
- Street Food Vendor
Other planned additions are Expeditions, new appraisal items and a main storyline expansion. Follow them on the patch notes & roadmap.
Quick questions
How many starting scenarios are in Probably Stolen?
Version 1.0 has nine starting scenarios. They are Apprentice, Water Merchant, Fence, Gunsmith, Chemist, Hydroponic Farmer, Aquafarmer, Rat Wrangler and Rock Bottom. Junker, Organ Trader and Street Food Vendor starts are planned for free post-launch updates.
What is the hidden scenario in Probably Stolen?
The Rat Wrangler was a secret start hidden on the profession selection screen during the playtest. It was made visible in playtest patch 48.3.12. Starting a run with the hidden scenario unlocks the We Have Rats! achievement.
What is the hardest start in Probably Stolen?
Rock Bottom, where you start with nothing. The developer calls it maximum difficulty. Winning it unlocks From Nothing, and winning it on hard mode unlocks From Nothing, the Hard Way. Only about 0.1–0.2% of players had either achievement a day after launch.
SOURCES & VERSION
Checked against game version 1.0.0.2. Official = developer announcement or store page; Steam data = Valve's public stats; Community = player-measured, credited to its author. Community numbers can drift after patches.
- official Steam store page — Questing Goose Studio / tinyBuild, 2026-10-29
- official Probably Stolen is OUT NOW! — Official Steam announcement, 2026-10-28
- official 500,000 Wishlists! — Official Steam announcement, 2026-10-27
- official Opening October 28: What’s in Store for 1.0 — Official Steam announcement, 2026-10-22
- official Demo Update – Aquafarmer — Official Steam announcement, 2026-10-19
- official Playtest Patch 48.3.10 – Rock Bottom & Water Upgrade — Official Steam announcement, 2026-08-07
- official Playtest Patch 48.3.12 – The Rat Wrangler — Official Steam announcement, 2026-08-08
- official Water Balance & Hotfix – 1.0.0.2 — Official Steam announcement, 2026-10-29
- Steam data Global achievement stats — Steam Community, 2026-10-29
- community 开荒顺序与投资取舍 (Opening order & investment trade-offs) — Steam guide by 诺布诺布, 2026-10-28
- community Water Trading Made Easy — Steam guide by Owlie, 2026-10-28
Spotted something outdated after a patch? Official changelogs live on the Steam news hub, and we track them on the patch notes page.
Official store
Run the shop yourself
Probably Stolen – Cyberpunk Shopkeeper Sim is sold on Steam by tinyBuild. We never host game files — use the official page for the current price and the Supporter Edition.